COMPASS: A Framework for Navigating Systemic Risks

Pedro Nascimento de Lima; Flannery C. Dolan; Tim McDonald; Karishma V. Patel; Benjamin Boudreaux; Chandra Garber; Leah Dion; Sean Mann; Jonathan W. Welburn

Abstract

COMPASS (Comprehensive Mapping Protocol for Anticipating and Adapting to Systemic Shocks) is a framework designed to help analysts and senior policymakers navigate systemic risks from disruptions, such as artificial intelligence adoption, pandemics, or natural disasters. It guides users through five steps to consider disruptors, primary and secondary system impacts, affected actors, relevant outcomes and policy objectives, and effective policy responses.

Publication Impact Statistics

Topics

artificial intelligence complex systems analysis emerging technologies systemic risk risk assessment policy analysis decision support

Citation

@techreport{nascimento_de_lima_compass_2025,
	title = {{COMPASS}: {A} {Framework} for {Navigating} {Systemic} {Risks}},
	shorttitle = {{COMPASS}},
	url = {https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA3888-1.html},

	language = {en},
	urldate = {2025-09-23},
	author = {{Nascimento de Lima}, Pedro and Dolan, Flannery C. and McDonald, Tim and Patel, Karishma V. and Boudreaux, Benjamin and Garber, Chandra and Dion, Leah and Mann, Sean and Welburn, Jonathan W.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2025},
	doi = {10.7249/WRA3888-1},
	keywords = {Artificial Intelligence, Complex Systems Analysis, Draft, Emerging Technologies}
}