Pedro Nascimento de Lima, PhD

Researcher at RAND Corporation and Professor at RAND School of Public Policy

Research Streams

My research is organized into streams representing major thematic areas. Substantive streams focus on specific policy domains, while methodological streams represent analytical approaches and tools that cut across applications.

Cancer Early Detection & Prevention

Using microsimulation models and cost-effectiveness analysis to improve cancer screening programs, reduce disparities, and inform clinical guidelines.

16 publications
Featured Publications
Cost-Effectiveness of Noninvasive Colorectal Cancer Screening in Community Clinics
JAMA Network Open • 2025
Benefits of colorectal cancer screening using FIT with varying positivity thresholds by age and sex
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute • 2025

Pandemic Preparedness & Response

Developing decision support tools and surveillance systems to help policymakers respond effectively to infectious disease threats under deep uncertainty.

16 publications
Featured Publications
Strategies to Improve Detection of Novel Pandemic Pathogens: Cost Versus Detection Performance for Promising Pathogen-Agnostic Detection Workflows
RAND Research Report • 2025
The Case For Sustaining Wastewater Surveillance Capabilities In The US
Health Affairs Forefront • 2025

Equity & Society

Examining how social determinants and structural factors shape health outcomes and economic opportunities to identify policies that promote equity.

12 publications
Featured Publications
Cost-Effectiveness of Noninvasive Colorectal Cancer Screening in Community Clinics
JAMA Network Open • 2025
Modeled Cost-Effectiveness of a Rideshare Program to Facilitate Colonoscopy Completion
JAMA Network Open • 2025

Modeling & Simulation

Developing computational models including microsimulation, agent-based, and epidemic models to understand complex systems and evaluate policy interventions.

34 publications
Featured Publications
Cost-Effectiveness of Noninvasive Colorectal Cancer Screening in Community Clinics
JAMA Network Open • 2025
Benefits of colorectal cancer screening using FIT with varying positivity thresholds by age and sex
JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute • 2025

Robust Decision Making

Applying frameworks for decision-making under deep uncertainty to identify strategies that perform well across a wide range of plausible futures.

7 publications
Featured Publications
Stress-testing US colorectal cancer screening guidelines: Decennial colonoscopy from age 45 is robust to natural history uncertainty and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions
Medical Decision Making • 2025
Incorporating social determinants of health into agent-based models of HIV transmission: methodological challenges and future directions
Frontiers in Epidemiology • 2025

Causal Inference

Evaluating causal inference methods for estimating policy effects from observational data.

3 publications
Featured Publications
Assessing Bias and Precision in State Policy Evaluations: A Comparative Analysis of Time-Varying Estimators Using Policy Simulations
arXiv • 2025
Identifying Optimal Methods for Addressing Confounding Bias When Estimating the Effects of State-level Policies
Epidemiology • 2023

Tools & Packages

Creating open-source software tools and R packages to support reproducible research and enable researchers to apply advanced methods.

8 publications
Featured Publications
The Future of Artificial Intelligence Policy Is the Future of Competing Demands
RAND Visualization • 2025
OPTIC R Repository and Tutorial for Creating Policy Wheel Data Visualizations
RAND Tool • 2025